Această pagină are doar un rol de informare. Este posibil ca anumite servicii și caracteristici să nu fie disponibile în jurisdicția dvs.

What We See in the Markets: A recap of the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville

Cumberland

Keep up with the latest in crypto research as we share the insights from leading institutional research players.

In this edition, we share what Cumberland sees in the markets with last week's Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

It was an active weekend for Bitcoin, as prominent politicians took the stage at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. RFK was the most aggressive, promising to sign an order which would both halt selling of seized BTC and also establishing a buying program to be used for a strategic reserve. Cynthia Lummis announced a legislative proposal to purchase one million BTC over the course of the next five years. But all eyes were on Trump; a similar announcement from the front-runner would mean much more than from a third-party candidate or from a senator who has been supportive of crypto for years. Trump announced that he would remove Gary Gensler on day one, that he would establish a crypto advisory council, and suggested that the US should not sell their current BTC. He presented a general message that, under his administration, the crypto industry would be encouraged to remain in the US. Tonally, the market was underwhelmed; BTC had rallied to just shy of 70k ahead of the speech, but it pulled back immediately after. At the moment, it seems as if the market was slightly over-positioned long ahead of the speech and was disappointed by the tone, but looking at the actual content, it seems substantial, so we may see Monday’s market treat it more positively than the weekend warriors who stayed on the desk to trade the event.

It will be interesting, over the coming months, to watch the Democrats’ stance on crypto come into clarity. In Nashville, Trump presented Democrats as out to kill crypto. In May, we saw strong suggestions that Democrats realize they’ve been on the wrong side of the issue; with a new candidate, they may seek to reposition themselves. This was the message from Wiley Nickel at the conference, and a group of Democrats, including a dozen members of the house, has written a letter calling for the DNC to change its stance on digital assets. The DNC, taking place in about three weeks, may be another event closely watched by crypto traders.

The other major impact here is that, whether or not the US ends up holding BTC in its strategic reserves, the Overton Window has now shifted, probably permanently. Just weeks after Germany sold a meaningful amount of seized BTC into the open market, there is now even more of a permission structure, globally, for governments to openly discuss actually purchasing BTC. El Salvador was an outlier when it became the first country to purchase BTC as a treasury asset in September of 2021; it seems as if the conversation in the US has set the stage for multiple other countries to take the same actions over the course of the next year.

ETH is down about 5.5% since the launch of Ethereum ETFs last Tuesday. General estimates across the market suggested the eventual size of the Ethereum ETFs would be between 12-18% of the AUM of BTC products. From a volume standpoint, it has been a successful launch, with $3b in volume over the first four days, 27% of the first four days of BTC. However, the reason for the market selloff is the net flows; there have been about 1.2b of flows into new ETFs, but 1.5b of Grayscale’s ETHE fund has been redeemed, a net outflow of 341m. This contrasts with BTC, which saw a net inflow of about $1.2b in the first four days. It’s worth noting that BTC performed poorly from a price standpoint in the first few weeks following the launch, and the AUC of BTC ETFs didn’t really accelerate until nearly a month after launch; after launching on Jan 16, between Feb 5 and Mar 18 the size of BTC ETFs increased from 1.5b to $12b, and BTC rallied nearly 90% during that period. This period feels very similar to the initial period of BTC, where inflows are either a) very small, or b) only driven by traders unwinding Grayscale and purchasing Blackrock, Fidelity, or Bitwise to maintain their exposure. If ETH flows flip from negative to positive as they would be expected to do, ETH could have the opportunity to see a rally of a similar magnitude.

Disclaimer

The information (“Information”) provided by Cumberland DRW LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “Cumberland”), either in this document or otherwise, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge. Cumberland is a principal trading firm; it is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances, or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision. THE INFORMATION IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO ENGAGE IN ANY TRANSACTION.

If any person elects to enter into transactions with Cumberland, whether as a result of the Information or otherwise, Cumberland will enter into such transactions as principal only and will act solely in its own best interests, which may be adverse to the interests of such person. Before entering into any such transaction, you should conduct your own research and obtain your own advice as to whether the transaction is appropriate for your specific circumstances. In addition, any person wishing to enter into transactions with Cumberland must satisfy Cumberland’s eligibility requirements. Cumberland may be subject to certain conflicts of interest in connection with the provision of the Information. For example, Cumberland may, but does not necessarily, hold or control positions in the cryptoasset(s) discussed in the Information, and transactions entered into by Cumberland could affect the relevant markets in ways that are adverse to a counterparty of Cumberland. Cumberland may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in the Information.

Cumberland makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. Cumberland undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The virtual currency industry is subject to a range of risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or cryptoassets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment. The past performance of any instruments, products, or cryptoassets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Investing in virtual currencies involves significant risks and is not appropriate for many investors, including those without significant investment experience and capacity to assume significant risks.

Cumberland SG Pte. Ltd. is exempted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) from holding a license to provide digital payment token (“DPT”) services. Please note that you may not be able to recover all the money or DPTs you paid to a DPT service provider if the DPT service provider’s business fails. You should not transact in a DPT if you are not familiar with the DPT. This includes how the DPT is created, and how the DPT you intend to transact is transferred or held by your DPT service provider. You should be aware that the value of DPTs may fluctuate greatly. You should buy DPTs only if you are prepared to accept the risk of losing all of the money you put into such tokens. You should be aware that your DPT service provider, as part of its license to provide DPT services, may offer services related to DPTs which are promoted as having a stable value, commonly known as “stablecoins.”

The information provided in this document by Cumberland DRW LLC is for informational purposes only and does not necessarily represent the views of OKX. Any additional disclaimers issued by these third parties are also applicable and should be considered as part of this document.

This report is not intended as financial advice, investment recommendation, or an endorsement of specific trading strategies. The contents of this report, including but not limited to any graphs, charts, and numerical data, are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The warranties disclaimed include but are not limited to performance, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, omissions, completeness, currentness, and delays.

The cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, subject to substantial market risks including significant price fluctuations. The strategies, opinions, and analyses included are based on information available at the time of writing and may change without notice. They are also based on certain assumptions and historical data that may not be accurate or applicable in the future. Therefore, reliance on this report for the purpose of making investment decisions is at your own risk.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any data or information contained in this report. We are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this report, including but not limited to, lost profits or investment losses.

Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The inclusion of any specific cryptocurrencies or trading strategies does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by OKX.

Limitarea răspunderii
Acest conținut este furnizat doar în scopuri informative și poate acoperi produse care nu sunt disponibile în regiunea dvs. Acesta nu este menit să furnizeze (i) sfaturi sau recomandări de investiții; (ii) o ofertă sau o solicitare de a cumpăra, vinde sau deține active digitale sau (iii) recomandări financiare, contabile, juridice sau fiscale. Deținerile de active digitale, inclusiv criptomonede stabile și NFT-uri, presupun un nivel ridicat de risc și pot fluctua foarte mult. Ar trebui să vă gândiți bine dacă tranzacționarea sau deținerea de active digitale este adecvată pentru dvs., având în vedere situația dvs. financiară. Consultați un specialist în domeniul juridic/fiscal/al investițiilor și adresați-i întrebări cu privire la circumstanțele dvs. specifice. Informațiile (inclusiv datele de piață și informațiile statistice, după caz) care apar în această postare sunt prezentate doar în scop de informare generală. Deși s-au luat toate măsurile rezonabile pentru a pregăti aceste date și grafice, nu acceptăm nicio responsabilitate sau răspundere pentru nicio eroare factuală sau omisiune exprimată aici. Atât OKX Web3 Wallet, cât și OKX NFT Marketplace fac obiectul unor termeni separați privind serviciile, pe care îi puteți consulta la www.okx.com.
© 2024 OKX. Acest articol poate fi reprodus sau distribuit în întregime sau pot fi folosite extrase ale acestui articol de maximum 100 de cuvinte, cu condiția ca respectiva utilizare să nu fie comercială. De asemenea, orice reproducere sau distribuire a întregului articol trebuie să menționeze în mod clar: „Acest articol are drepturi de autor atribuite OKX în anul 2024 și este utilizat cu permisiune.” Extrasele permise trebuie să menționeze denumirea articolului și trebuie să includă atribuirea, de exemplu „Denumirea articolului, [numele autorului, dacă este cazul], © 2024 OKX.” Nu este permisă nicio lucrare derivată sau alte utilizări ale acestui articol.
Extindere
Articole similare
Vizualizați mai mult
Vizualizați mai mult
Explorați soluțiile noastre instituționale.