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Crypto Derivatives 3 September 2024

Block Scholes -Bl

Keep up with the latest in crypto market commentary as we share the insights from our institutional research partners.

In this edition, we share the latest crypto derivatives weekly from Block Scholes.

Despite volatility levels having largely fluctuated for short-tenor ATM options, from the term structure we can once again observe that, as the US election approaches, volatility for options expiring after the election date is rising. We can additionally observe that skew for short-tenor options has been evolving positively in the past few days, with skew levels slightly rising similarly to what happened in mid-August, indicating a more neutral outlook despite the recent spot volatility. Concurrently, long-tenor options have consistently been pricing in higher volatility levels across the term structure, showing a stronger preference towards OTM calls.

ATM Implied Volatility, 1-Month Tenor

OKX Currency-Combined-1M-ATM-VOL-ETH

BTC Options

BTC SVI Vol term structure

BTC SVI ATM Implied Volatility

OKX BTC SVI ATM volatility

Short-dated volatility is oscillating, while volatility levels remain constant for long-tenor options.

BTC 25-Delta Risk Reversal

OKX BTC SVI PC skew

Skew levels have dropped towards puts in the past week for short tenors, but show signs of recovery in the past days.

ETH Options

ETH SVI Vol term structure

ETH SVI ATM Implied Volatility

OKX ETH SVI ATM volatility

shows the same increase in the term structure as BTC for short tenors.

ETH 25-Delta Risk Reversal

OKX BTC SVI ATM volatility

ETH’s short-tenor skews have fallen more significantly than BTC’s, and show slower signs of recovery.

Market Composite Volatility Surface

okx snap BTC SMILES.moneyness
okx snap ETH SMILES.moneyness

Listed Expiry Volatility Smiles

BTC BTC-27SEP24 Listed Expiry
ETH ETH-27SEP24 Listed Expiry

Constant Maturity Volatility Smiles

BTC-SVI Constant Maturity
ETH-SVI Constant Maturity

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This report is not intended as financial advice, investment recommendation, or an endorsement of specific trading strategies. The contents of this report, including but not limited to any graphs, charts, and numerical data, are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The warranties disclaimed include but are not limited to performance, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, omissions, completeness, currentness, and delays.

The cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable, subject to substantial market risks including significant price fluctuations. The strategies, opinions, and analyses included are based on information available at the time of writing and may change without notice. They are also based on certain assumptions and historical data that may not be accurate or applicable in the future. Therefore, reliance on this report for the purpose of making investment decisions is at your own risk.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any data or information contained in this report. We are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this report, including but not limited to, lost profits or investment losses.

Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The inclusion of any specific cryptocurrencies or trading strategies does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by OKX.

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