Toncoin price prediction: TON technical analysis and trading guide

If you're a frequent crypto trader, you'll likely have come across Toncoin — the native cryptocurrency used across The Open Network platform. As a coin that once held the name Gram and was originally aimed at streamlining cryptocurrency payments directly on the Telegram platform, plans eventually fell apart due to the intervention of regulators. Fortunately, rather than let the open-source project fall out of relevance, the TON Foundation revived the project and made it The Open Network we know today.

Keen to find out how you can take advantage of the momentum Toncoin has? From understanding existing Toncoin price predictions to performing some basic technical analysis of Toncoin, here's everything you need to know when trading TON.

What is Toncoin (TON)?

Toncoin is the native utility coin powering the TON blockchain and was launched by the TON Foundation. TON's uses include network operations, staking, on-chain governance, and payments. TON was developed with the goal of putting crypto in every wallet as the TON Foundation refines the TON blockchain until it's capable of supporting the needs of millions of users.

Toncoin updates: roadmap progress

Alongside TON technical analysis and understanding how TON trades in the crypto market, it's also key to be aware of the project's potential catalysts.

Since December 2022, the auditing platform CertiK and TON became partners. This means CertiK has been auditing smart contracts and services offered by TON since then. Overall, this gives The Open Network the security and credibility it needs to stand out in the crypto space.

Security audits aside, TON made plenty of headway in 2023. According to TON's roadmap, the entity has accomplished close to 20 milestones. These include the following:

• Established a TON and Telegram partnership, which involves promotion of the TON Web3 ecosystem on Telegram messenger and the integration of a self-custodial crypto wallet within Telegram.

• A deflationary mechanism that burns 50% of TON transaction fees received by validators.

• Enhanced TON Virtual Machine by simplifying the process of writing smart contracts on TON, improving overall security, and adding numerous cryptography methods.

With 2023 coming to a close, the TON Foundation is keen to end the year positively. This includes a scalability and speed showcase of the TON blockchain, and the building of ETH, BNB, and BTC bridges to improve crosschain interoperability.

TON price movements

When we explore the yearly performance of TON as a cryptocurrency, Toncoin has been trading in a range between $0.96 and $2.71 for the better half of 2023. Unlike other layer-1 coins like ETH and BTC that have seen massive year-to-date (YTD) gains of 57% and 113% respectively, TON has achieved YTD gains of close to 24%.

At the beginning of 2023, TON had a bearish outlook as it took a sudden dip in May 2023. However, TON eventually turned things around as catalysts like Telegram integration possibly built up bullish expectations for crypto traders. TON's price has largely appreciated since mid-2023. With TON's last-traded price of $2.69 as of November 8, 2023, we might witness TON appreciate to new annual highs as the TON Foundation team continues to work on improving the fundamentals of Toncoin.

TON technical analysis

It's important to note that within the blockchain space, any cryptocurrency that isn’t built in the form of stablecoins, such as TON, can experience a high level of volatility. While it may be hard to accurately predict TON's price in the near future, we can use technical analysis and trading indicators to create a trading plan and come to our own conclusions on where TON is headed. In the example below, we'll be making use of popular technical analysis indicators like the simple moving average and the relative strength index while referring to TON's price as of November 8, 2023.

Simple moving average (SMA)

As one of the key technical indicators crypto traders use for trend analysis, SMA refers to the average price of the asset over a specified period. Looking at the chart above, the specified period will be 50 days and 200 days respectively. Instead of just referring to them for TON's average price, what crypto traders will particularly take notice of is the amount of crossovers that occur. When the 50 SMA crosses below the 200 SMA, a death cross appears, which hints to traders that there's an exhaustion of bullish momentum for TON. This was the case in May 2023, as TON's price plunged as low as $0.96 before gradually recovering.

On the other hand, when the 50 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA in September 2023, TON's price began to appreciate as the SMA crossover hinted at a bullish rally. With the 50 SMA far above the 200 SMA, we're likely to see TON's price continue appreciating in the long run based on the analysis of simple moving average crossovers.

Relative strength index (RSI)

In short, RSI is a lagging indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. Most crypto traders use it as a momentum indicator to determine the cryptocurrency's general trend. RSI values over 70 are typically a sign that an asset is overbought and can experience a correction in its value. Conversely, an RSI of 30 or under indicates that an asset is currently oversold and undervalued by crypto traders.In TON's case, the RSI was sitting at 77.84 as of early November 2023, which implies that the recent Toncoin rally has plenty of bullish momentum behind it. This could result in a decline in TON's price as crypto traders lock in their gains while TON's RSI is signaling that Toncoin is overbought.

Like the current case of Toncoin being overbought, TON faced two similar incidents in 2023, where TON's price suffered a dip when its RSI was above 70. Although past performance isn't indicative of future performance, this trend might be something to take note of if you're intending to trade TON.

Toncoin price predictions

If you're a new crypto trader that's unfamiliar with the price action and fundamentals of TON, you'll likely be looking out for Toncoin price predictions since that might give you a rough gauge of the overall sentiment towards TON.

As with all analyst price predictions, they should be taken with a grain of salt since they're subjective opinions that may carry a certain level of bias that could be impacted by the current crypto market sentiment. For all analyst perspectives presented in this section, we'll be looking at Toncoin price predictions for 2023 and 2025 as of November 8, 2023.

From the bulk of these predictions, we can see that analysts are largely bullish with their TON price predictions as more than half expect approximately a 10% upside to Toncoin for the remainder of 2023. Also, based on analysts' Toncoin price predictions for 2025, the majority forecast a multiple of the TON's last-traded price today. This likely means analysts are seeing a major upside to Toncoin with a limited downside for both bull and bear cases.

Is it worth trading Toncoin?

There's much to consider before deciding to trade TON, and it's wise to take a balanced view during due diligence. Aim to analyze a broad variety of information to make sure you're fully informed about the project and its prospects before committing funds.

If you're bullish for the future for TON, you'll likely want to keep track of its Telegram integration. As previously mentioned, the Telegram partnership with the TON Foundation is one of the major reasons for Toncoin's recent bullish rally. While promotions and marketing campaigns are still in their early stages, Telegram has been actively pushing for the use of TON across its messaging app. From claiming that TON blockchain is the fastest in the world with its lightning-quick 100,000 TPS in sponsored Telegram messages to allowing payment for a Telegram Premium membership with Toncoin, we'll likely see more avenues for collaboration in the near future.

With more than 800,000,000 monthly active users, Telegram represents a key channel for mass adoption and distribution of Toncoin. As TON gains exposure to this growing Telegram user base, we may see a gradual increase in adoption and activity on the TON blockchain over time.

If you're bearish for Toncoin's future and want to trade it, you might want to consider the following concerns users have about TON. First, the TON Space wallet that's widely available on Telegram is marketed as a self-custodial digital wallet. However, there's no need for users to store their private keys for their TON Space wallet as this has been abstracted away for the sake of convenience and lowering the barrier to adopting TON Space.

Does this imply that TON Space isn't a tried and true non-custodial wallet? Crypto skeptics are quick to point out "not your keys, not your coins", so this concern is definitely something bearish traders should take note of down the line. Another point TON critics raise is that the TON blockchain isn't compatible with Ethereum Virtual Machine. This could likely pose a problem for developers down the line since solidity contracts that run like second nature on the Ethereum blockchain can't be easily integrated on the TON blockchain.

Final words and next steps

As with all crypto price predictions and analyst comments, it's crucial to do your own research before committing to a trading plan and executing trades. In the case of TON, while analysts do see some remaining upside in the near future, this certainly comes with its own set of risks.

Technical indicators like RSI already show that TON is overbought and in need of a short-term correction before rallying further. With catalysts like the Telegram partnership and crosschain bridges being built with other layer-1 blockchains, the future of Toncoin does look bright. However, only time will tell if altcoins like TON can survive in today's macroeconomic environment where crypto traders may favor safer plays that provide more certainty in financial gains over time.

Keen to learn more about TON? Get started by visiting our Toncoin price page for more information today.

Frequently asked questions

Who owns Toncoin?

Telegram founders Nikolai Durov and Pavel Durov were the original creators of TON as they released the first version of the Telegram Open Network White paper. However, Telegram was forced by regulators to cease active development of TON. An open-source community then continued to maintain the network and build further functionality to it before renaming the project to The Open Network in 2022.

How many TON will there ever be in circulation?

The maximum total supply of Toncoin (TON) is 5,000,000,000.

Is Toncoin on the Ethereum blockchain?

Toncoin is a layer-1 blockchain that exists independently of Ethereum. However, its code is based on Ethereum smart contracts and features sharding support.

What's Toncoin used for?

Toncoin is designed to create an ecosystem and can be used to sustain decentralized applications. Besides this, TON also fills the role of processing transactions, on-chain governance, cross-chain transactions, and staking.