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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market is a sea of green as traders look past the stagflation specter raised by the Fed on Wednesday and cheer President Donald Trump's hint of a big trade-deal announcement with a major trading partner. Bitcoin jumped 2.6%, nearing $100,000, even with the WSJ reporting that the announcement could be more of a framework for talks than actual confirmation of an agreement. The wider market put in bigger gains, with XRP, ETH, ADA, DOGE and several other coins rising 4% to 6%. Tokens associated with memecoin projects, layer 1s and DeFi are leading the market higher. In key news, cumulative inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have hit an all-time high of $40.62 billion, signaling continued institutional adoption. (Check Chart of the Day.) On Thursday, Arizona became the second U.S. state to pass a bitcoin reserve bill. The regulation allows the state to take ownership of abandoned coins in the event that the owner ignores messages sent within three years. It also lets the state make BTC investments. An ether whale ICO participant sold 5,200 ETH at $9.54 million, extending a series of recent liquidations. The whale still holds 8,300 ETH ($15.28 million). Decentralized layer-1 blockchain Avalanche's C-Chain registered the highest amount of transactions in two years, with the median gas cost of just $0.00078. The AVAX token traded 7% higher at $21 at press time. Stripe unveiled a new feature called Stablecoin Financial Accounts, powered by Bridge, unlocking access to dollar-denominated services in over 100 countries. On the macro front, the first quarter U.S. unit labor cost data will be watched by traders for signs of sticky wage price inflation that could potentially delay the Fed rate cuts. Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto: May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. May 12, 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: A U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet" will be held at the SEC's headquarters in Washington. Macro May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later. Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5% May 8, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 3. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 241K May 8, 10 a.m.: President Donald Trump will reportedly unveil the framework of a trade deal with the U.K. at a White House press conference. May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11 May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88 May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10 May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52 May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market Token Events Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to put the last $10.7 million from its 35 million ARB diversification plan into three low‑risk, dollar‑based funds from WisdomTree, Spiko and Franklin Templeton. Voting ends on May 8. Compound DAO is voting on which new collateral type to prioritize on Compound V3. Voting ends May 8. May 8, 10 a.m.: Balancer and Euler to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session. May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates. Unlocks May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.08 million. May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $35.66 million. May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $57.45 million. May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.14 billion. May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $17.7 million. Token Launches May 8: AIXBT to be listed on Binance.US. May 8: Space and Time (SXT) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, KuCoin, Bitget and others. May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase. Conferences CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Day 3 of 3: Stripe Sessions (San Francisco) Day 2 of 3: SALT’s Bermuda Digital Finance Forum 2025 (Hamilton, Bermuda) May 9-10: Stanford Blockchain Governance Summit (San Francisco) May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto) May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto) May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York) May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York) May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto) May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto) May 14-16: CoinDesk's Consensus 2025 (Toronto) Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa $3, just $3. That's all Movement network earned in fees over the past 24 hours, DeFiLlama data shows, the lowest in a week for the embattled chain once valued at $1 billion. Daily DEX volumes have cratered below $500K, a dramatic fall from earlier exuberance that saw the network process more than $2 million a day. The slide comes days after CoinDesk reported irregularities with how the MOVE token was distributed and supplied to trading firms. Ironically, the MOVE token launched before the chain existed, raising millions via private sales while the actual blockchain infrastructure lagged far behind. The project handed out 66 million MOVE tokens (5% of supply) to a market-making firm called Rentech, which dumped nearly all of it for $38 million. Founder Rushi Manche was terminated on May 7, just days after being suspended. He admitted to “zero oversight” and blamed bad-faith advisers for the project’s collapse in X posts following the CoinDesk report. MOVE has fallen over 85% from its peak of $1.45 in December 2024 to just 15 cents. With no trust, no traction and, now, almost no fees, Movement has turned into the cautionary tale of 2025 — a billion-dollar paper promise with a $3 reality. Derivatives Positioning BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates rose close to an annualized 10%, signaling a strengthening bullish mood in the market. BTC, ETH futures premium on the CME still remain under 10%. On Deribit, bitcoin and ether options risk reversals show a bullish bias for calls across multiple time frames. Notable block trades include a short position in the $85K BTC put expiring in June and a calendar spread involving calls at strikes $140K and $170K, expiring on Sept. 26 and Dec. 26, respectively. Market Movements: BTC is up 3.49% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $99,620.26 (24hrs: +2.77%) ETH is up 7.76% at $1,939.15 (24hrs: +5.11%) CoinDesk 20 is up 5.75% at 2,854.54 (24hrs: +3.81%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.894% BTC funding rate is at 0.0048% (5.2242% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.48% at 100.09 Gold is down 1.25% at $3,343.61/oz Silver is down 0.25% at $32.40/oz Nikkei 225 closed +0.41% at 36,928.63 Hang Seng closed +0.37% at 22,775.92 FTSE is up 0.39% at 8,592.98 Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.21% at 5,293.07 DJIA closed on Wednesday +0.7% at 41,113.97 S&P 500 closed +0.43% at 5,631.28 Nasdaq closed +0.27% at 17,738.16 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.75% at 25,161.18 S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.2% at 2,512.07 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.315% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 5,170.00 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.4% at 20,240.00 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.82% at 41,552.00 Bitcoin Stats: BTC Dominance: 65.08 (-0.44%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01942 (4.02%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 909 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $53.34 Total Fees: 6.64 BTC / $661,908.40 CME Futures Open Interest: 142,255 BTC BTC priced in gold: 29.5 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 8.37% Technical Analysis The XRP-ETH ratio has dived out of the year-to-date ascending trendline. The breakdown suggests ether outperformance relative to XRP in the days ahead. Crypto Equities Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $392.48 (+1.78%), up 5.35% at $413.49 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $196.56 (-0.17%), up 4.77% at $205.94 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.49 (+2.28%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.33 (+1.37%), up 5.55% at $14.07 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.84 (-0.25%), up 5.1% at $8.24 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.90 (-1%), up 5.28% at $9.37 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.03 (-0.74%), up 5.23% at $8.45 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.59 (+0.34%), up 5.89% at $15.45 Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.05 (-0.12%), up 4.99% at $34.70 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $40.01 (+1.34%), up 0.25% at $40.11 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow: $142.3 million Cumulative net flows: $40.68 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: -$21.8 million Cumulative net flows: $2.48 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day The chart shared by pseudonymous analyst Checkmate shows the cumulative inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have hit a record high above $40 billion. Early this week, BlackRock's IBIT surpassed the SPDR gold ETF in year-to-date inflows. While You Were Sleeping Trump to Announce Trade-Deal Framework With Britain (The Wall Street Journal): The U.K. is seeking relief from steep U.S. tariffs on steel and autos in exchange for curbing a tax on digital services, according to people familiar with the talks. India and Pakistan May Have an Off-Ramp After Their Clash. Will They Take It? (New York Times): India and Pakistan signaled room for de-escalation after Indian strikes killed over 20 in Pakistan, with both sides portraying their responses as limited and back-channel talks reportedly underway. Binance Founder CZ Confirms He Has Applied for Trump Pardon After Prison Term (CoinDesk): CZ said his lawyers had applied for a presidential pardon after media reports in March wrongly claimed he had already done so. Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1M by 2028 as U.S.-China Craft Hollow Trade Deal (CoinDesk): The former BitMEX CEO predicted bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2028, citing Treasury-driven liquidity and geopolitical shifts while dismissing U.S.-China trade deals as largely symbolic. The EU Wants to End All Russian Gas Imports. Moscow’s Friends in the Bloc Say It’s a ‘Serious Mistake’ (CNBC): The European Commission’s plan to end all energy imports from Russia by 2027 was condemned by Hungary and Slovakia. Bankers Are Bouncing Back to Life as Hunger for Junk Debt Soars (Bloomberg): Some U.S. investors are moving into European junk bonds to diversify amid tariff-related uncertainty, drawn by expectations of faster rate cuts and demand for companies insulated from trade risks. In the Ether

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) As bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market await the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, an anomaly has emerged that could weigh heavily on market mood: renewed doubt over the passing of U.S. crypto regulation. Early Tuesday, CoinDesk reported that Senate Democrats are hesitant to push forward landmark stablecoin legislation, citing concerns over President Donald Trump's growing personal gains from his crypto ventures. When Trump took office, many observers felt crypto regulation would proceed smoothly. Looking back, that optimism was probably misplaced. With the president actively involved in digital assets through family-linked projects like WLFI and memecoins, opposition has mounted, potentially slowing the regulatory progress. That might lead investors to reprice regulatory uncertainty just as charts for BTC and XRP are signaling pullback risks. Additionally, according to CryptoQuant, there are signs of renewed weakness in bitcoin demand from U.S.-based investors. "Over the past month, the premium recovered significantly but is now dropping again — aligning with the recent BTC price correction," CryptoQuant contributor AbramChart said. On the positive side, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marked three straight days of net inflows. Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham told crypto journalist Eleanor Terret that the derivatives market regulator plans to observe a handful of tokenization pilot programs to evaluate the technology and see how well tokenized assets function in the real world . Speaking of traditional markets and macro, Taiwan dollar forward contracts signal extreme pressure on the U.S. dollar, meaning the greenback could continue to weaken against the Asian currency and probably major currencies like the euro. The broad-based USD weakness may act as a tailwind for crypto. FX market volatility could drive investors to gold and perhaps bitcoin, too, unless it leads to a broad-based risk-off, in which case BTC may feel the heat. The other bullish development is the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments that U.S. rates now carry sovereign credit risk and not just long-term growth and inflation expectations. In other words, rates are artificially high because the U.S. government itself is now the risk premium, as pseudonymous observer EndGame Macro said. So, a shift away from U.S. assets and into alternative investments could continue. Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto: May 6, 7:15 a.m.: Casper Network (CSPR) launches its 2.0 mainnet upgrade, introducing faster transactions, enhanced smart contracts, and improved staking features to boost enterprise adoption. May 7, 6:05 a.m.: The Pectra hard fork network upgrade will get activated on the Ethereum (ETH) mainnet at epoch 364032. Pectra combines two major components: the Prague execution layer hard fork and the Electra consensus layer upgrade. May 8: Judge John G. Koeltl will sentence Alex Mashinsky, the founder and former CEO of the now-defunct crypto lending firm Celsius Network, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Macro May 6, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases Brazil April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data. Composite PMI Prev. 52.6 Services PMI Prev. 52.5 May 6, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee joint hearing titled “American Innovation and the Future of Digital Assets: A Blueprint for the 21st Century.” Livestream link. May 7, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision. The FOMC press conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later. Federal Funds Rate Target Range Est. 4.25%-4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25%-4.5% May 8, 7 a.m.: The Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision. The Monetary Policy Report Press Conference is livestreamed 30 minutes later. Bank Rate Est. 4.25% vs. Prev. 4.5% Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) May 6: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.08 May 8: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $-0.11 May 8: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.88 May 8: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $-0.10 May 8: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.52 May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market Token Events Governance votes & calls Uniswap DAO is voting on whether to pay Forse, a data‑analytics platform from StableLab, $60,000 in UNI to build an “analytics hub” that tracks how incentive programs are working on four more blockchains. Voting ends on May 6. Arbitrum DAO is voting on whether to put the last $10.7 million from its 35 million ARB diversification plan into three low‑risk, dollar‑based funds from WisdomTree, Spiko and Franklin Templeton. Voting ends on May 8. May 6, 1:30 p.m.: MetaMask and Aave to host an X Spaces session on USDC supplied to Aave being spendable on the MetaMask card. May 7, 7:30 a.m.: PancakeSwap to host an X Spaces Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on the future of trading. May 7, 9 a.m.: Binance to host an AMA on its Binance Seeds program. May 7, 11 a.m.: Pendle to host a Pendle Yield Talk: Stablecoin Alpha X Spaces session. May 8, 10 a.m.: Balancer and Euler to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session. Unlocks May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.55% of its circulating supply worth $13.24 million. May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.97 million. May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $55.93 million. May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $54.97 million. May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.12 billion. May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $16.34 million. Token Launches May 7: Obol (OBOL) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate.io, MEXC,and others. May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase. Conferences CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Day 1 of 2: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London) Day 1 of 3: Stripe Sessions (San Francisco) May 7-9: SALT’s Bermuda Digital Finance Forum 2025 (Hamilton, Bermuda) May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto) May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit May 12-13: Filecoin (FIL) Developer Summit (Toronto) May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research (TLDR) Conference (New York) May 12-14: ACI’s 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York) May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto) May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto) May 14-16: CoinDesk's Consensus 2025 (Toronto) Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Tokens of some DeFi powerhouses are catching a bid as attention turns to fundamentals in a flat market. Hyperliquid's HYPE token surged 72% over the past week, outpacing most of the top 100 tokens. The platform's gas-free, order book-based, decentralized exchange model is attracting traders seeking efficient and transparent trading environments. AAVE has seen increased activity with the integration of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin into its V3 Ethereum Core Market. The move aims to bridge traditional finance with DeFi, enhancing AAVE's appeal to institutional investors. Despite a recent security breach on Curve Finance's X account, CRV managed to post a 40% gain in the past week, demonstrating investor confidence in the underlying protocol. Kay Lu, CEO of HashKey Eco Labs, said in a note to CoinDesk that traders are turning to projects with stronger fundamentals and token economics as memecoins fall out of favor. Derivatives Positioning XMR, TAO, ADA lead majors in 24-hour growth of perpetual futures open interest. XRP, meanwhile, has the most negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta, hinting at an influx of selling pressure. BTC's funding rate is barely positive, while ETH has flipped marginally negative, both pointing to weakening of bull momentum. CME futures basis climbed to between 5% and 10%, reviving interest in cash-and-carry arbitrage trades, according to Binance Research. Flows in the Deribit-listed options market have been mixed with May BTC calls and puts lifted. Market Movements BTC is down 0.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $94,160 (24hrs: -0.18%) ETH is down 1.09% at $1,795.10 (24hrs: -0.66%) CoinDesk 20 is down 1.05% at 2,675.34 (24hrs: -0.96%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.964% BTC funding rate is at 0.0046% (5.1147% annualized) on Binance DXY is down 0.14% at 99.69 Gold is up 1.99% at $3,379.76/oz Silver is up 2.13% at $32.99/oz Nikkei 225 closed +1.04% at 36,830.69 Hang Seng closed +0.7% at 22,662.71 FTSE is down 0.18% at 8,580.67 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.14% at 4,719.66 DJIA closed on Monday -0.24% at 41,218.83 S&P 500 closed -0.64% at 5,650.38 Nasdaq closed -0.74% at 17,844.24 S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.31% at 24,953.52 S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.15% at 2,493.86 U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is up 1 bp at 4.36% E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.74% at 5,629.75 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.05% at 19,845.50 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.61% at 41,067.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 64.91 (0.13%) Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01910 (-0.52%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 908 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $50.13 Total Fees: 5.10 BTC / $480,379.20 CME Futures Open Interest: 143,680 BTC BTC priced in gold: 28.1 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 7.97% Technical Analysis VIRTUAL, the native token of the Base-native Virtuals Protocol for creating and owning AI agents, has established a base above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-April sell-off. The breakout means potential for a rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $2.22. VIRTUAL is the best-performing coin of the past 30 days. Crypto Equities Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $386.53 (-1.99%), down 1.25% at $381.68 in pre-market Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $199.40 (-2.7%), down 0.63% at $198.15 Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.51 (-1.23%) MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.09 (-9.6%), down 1.22% at $12.93 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.90 (-5.84%), down 1.27% at $7.80 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.75 (+0.11%) CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.09 (-8.17%), down 0.62% at $8.04 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $14.26 (-4.74%) Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.58 (-7.13%), down 0.24% at $33.50 Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.28 (-7.84%), up 0.51% at $41.49 ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow: $425.5 million Cumulative net flows: $40.63 billion Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flow: $0 million Cumulative net flows: $2.53 billion Total ETH holdings ~ 3.47 million Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has dropped to the lowest since July last year. In other words, volatility is cheap, which is when seasoned traders typically prefer to buy options. While You Were Sleeping BlackRock, Citi CEOs to Visit Saudi Arabia Along With Trump (Bloomberg): Several top U.S. CEOs will speak May 13 at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, the day President Donald Trump arrives to seek another $1 trillion in Saudi trade and investment. Bitcoin Developers Plan OP_RETURN Limit Removal in Next Release (CoinDesk): Bitcoin Core’s plan to lift the cap has divided developers, with supporters citing cleaner UTXO handling and critics warning of spam risks and a shift away from financial use. Watch Out Bitcoin Bulls, $99.9K Price May Test Your Mettle (CoinDesk): Long-term BTC holders may take profits at $99,900, aligning with their historical behavior of selling at 350% paper gains, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. VIRTUAL Surges 200% in a Month as Smart Money Pours Into Virtuals Protocol (CoinDesk): The native token of the Base-powered decentralized AI agent platform has surged 207% in the past month, helped by $14.2 million in inflows from smart money, according to Nansen. Ukraine Targets Moscow With Drones for Second Straight Night, Officials Say (Reuters): All four Moscow airports were shut for several hours after Russian forces intercepted 19 drones days before the city’s planned World War II victory anniversary celebrations. Fed Confronts Lose-Lose Scenario Amid Haphazard Tariff Rollout (The Wall Street Journal): Fed officials are expected to delay rate cuts, fearing premature moves could intensify inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs and strained global supply chains. In the Ether

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